Bitcoin riskiert einen tieferen Rückgang, da Bergleute und US-Spot-ETFs das BTC-Engagement reduzieren, was den Angebotsdruck während eines fragilen Abwärtstrends erhöht.
Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped by more than 22.5% in the past week to $69,000 on Thursday, wiping out 15 months of gains entirely. However, the downtrend may not be over, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.
Key takeaways:
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Brandt says “campaign selling” is pressuring BTC, with miners and ETFs also cutting exposure.
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A potential bottom zone is near $54,600–$55,000.
Bitcoin may drop another 10% as miners, ETFs cut BTC exposure
BTC’s decline left behind a sequence of daily lower highs and lower lows. Simply put, the lack of even modest rebounds suggests few traders are stepping in to buy the dip, at least for now.
This structure, according to Brandt, had “fingerprints of campaign selling,” a deliberate, sustained distribution by large institutions, not retail liquidation.
Onchain data supports Brandt’s outlook. For instance, as of Thursday, the BTC miner net position change metric was showing a clear shift into net distribution throughout January, with miners consistently sending more BTC to the market.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs also reduced their exposure, with net BTC balances falling to 1.27 million BTC as of Wednesday from 1.29 million at the beginning of the year.
Related: Bhutan makes second Bitcoin transfer in a week, worth $22M
The Coinbase premium, a barometer linked to institutional interest, also fell to yearly lows.
This distribution boosted Bitcoin’s chances of reaching its bear flag target of around $63,800, down 10% from current levels, as shown below, based on Brandt’s technical setup.
Bitcoin may bottom below $55,000
Bitcoin risks a deeper drop toward $54,600 amid continued institutional selling, according to onchain analyst GugaOnChain.
The downside target is aligned with the lower zone (red) highlighted in the BTC DCA Signal Cycle metric below. This zone reflects Bitcoin’s one-week to one-month realized price and helps identify periods when BTC is structurally undervalued.
In 2022, the signal turned bullish as BTC fell below the same red zone near $20,000, forming a bottom around the level, before rallying to over $30,000 a year later.
GugaOnChain said:
“The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation.”
Meanwhile, another analysis highlights a potential accumulation window emerging after July 2026, based on historical lag effects between widening credit spreads and Bitcoin market bottoms.
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