Transcript:
CAROLINE WOODS
Joining me now, Mark Gibbens, CIO of Gibbens Capital Management. Mark, thanks so much for being here.
MARK GIBBENS
Yeah, glad to be here.
CAROLINE WOODS
So Mark, stocks are absolutely sinking today following news that President Trump is going to increase those 10% tariffs to 15%. What’s your view on the market given these new tariff plans. Has anything changed in your mind.
MARK GIBBENS
Not really. When you look at the intermediate and long term, there may be some, you know, a little bit of speed bumps here with tariffs or maybe some deal geopolitical tensions, say Iran. But the overall economy still looks really good. Right. So we’re talking about 3% growth. When we look at the markets themselves from a broad perspective, you know, we’re looking at, you know, low to mid teens on earnings growth, particularly in the fourth quarter.
You know earnings are coming in around 13% growth. Expecting around eight or so coming into the quarter. So certainly outperforming there when you look at the you know the fundamentals and the bottom line numbers they look pretty good.
CAROLINE WOODS
So would you say that down days like today then present good buying opportunities.
MARK GIBBENS
I would say that I’m not saying that, markets couldn’t fall further than the levels that they are today. But, when you take out a little bit of a longer term view, I think these are great moments for long term investors.
CAROLINE WOODS
Well, let’s talk about what you would be a buyer of here, given that we could continue to hear additional noise and see additional, downside for stocks, because we’ve been seeing this really great rotation away from tech. Do you look at that is just a pause before the next leg higher for tech. Or do you look at that is something fundamentally that’s shifting.
MARK GIBBENS
Well, I guess I would say kind of both in that the broadening trade is probably here to stay. You know, at least, you know, again, looking at the intermediate term, but tech looks a little bit oversold to me. There are a lot of positive catalyst there. Obviously, the AI CapEx cycle. But a lot of this, you know, Max, seven type companies, have been hit in recent weeks.
You know, obviously, of course, along with software, but that’s starting to look a little bit overdone to me. Again, trying to pick a perfect time to purchase these, you know, great enterprises for the long term. Can be difficult. But yeah, again, when you’re looking at the long term frame of things, this looks like a good time to jump in all of those names.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay, so I did notice that I was looking at your top holdings Nvidia, Microsoft, alphabet Amazon, Palantir on there. So you still pretty tech heavy despite this great rotation that we’re seeing. What are you comfortable scooping up here given some of the downside that we’ve seen?
MARK GIBBENS
I would say, you know, if you’re looking at things that are more tied to the kind of maybe the barbell the other side of that trade, which is more cyclicals, I like, small caps. We’ve picked up a little bit of small cap and caps and some accounts. Also like banks. So again, they’re tied to the overall economy.
We’re expecting positive economic growth. Interest rate spread looks pretty good for them. We’re coming into, possibly a turn up in capital markets. Activity and their trading operations look pretty good, especially for the bigger ones. So I like banks. On the other side of that trade. I like small caps. But again, we are sticking with a good chunk of our, client accounts.
Are still exposed to so much of the tech trade. And we like the outlook for it for the longer term. We do know that, you know, the market has been broadened and we expect it to continue to broaden, but we think, tech is going to going to start to stabilize here.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. So Nvidia is one of your top holdings. That’s really the the main market event on the agenda this week Nvidia earnings. Do you think that’s when the narrative starts to shift back in favor of tech. A lot riding on it right.
MARK GIBBENS
There there is certainly a lot riding on it. You know, the king of AI. Yeah. Reports after the bell on Wednesday and I think the I think the numbers are going to be good. Again, they continue to show, stellar growth and they continue to be reflective, of the overall overall AI CapEx cycle.
So again, it’s going to be a bellwether. And I think they’re going to show up. And I think they’re going to, do very well.
CAROLINE WOODS
What company do you think is best positioned to win the AI race volatility?
MARK GIBBENS
I would probably say, well, not only Nvidia itself, but probably Google. Again, their, their models have just, shown to be very good. So Gemini is looking very good. They also have the cloud and infrastructure piece. There’s a hyperscaler. So kind of both sides, of the AI trade itself. So, you know, it wasn’t so long ago, maybe a year ago, that everybody was riding, riding the company off.
Really, when they saw some of OpenAI’s and in ChatGPT capabilities. But I think Google’s right there, and it’s going to be here for, for the long term on the, I train.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. In terms of other topics I see, JPMorgan is one, you mentioned that you like financials. Is that a valuation play here at this point, given the fact that JP morgan’s down, what, 7% year to date, is it a bet on the consumer being strong? What’s that about?
MARK GIBBENS
It’s certainly a bet on the overall economy. So, we’re going to be getting some fiscal stimulus here. We may still get some stimulus this year. The economy itself looks pretty good. It’s powered by that, strong consumer. And the I spent so I can, banks are looking pretty good. JP Morgan trades at a little bit of a premium, to some of the other banks, but rightfully so.
It’s, you know, the largest bank in the world, and it does very well, in executing its operations. So, like JP Morgan, you know, regional banks themselves also don’t look bad. You know, we hold PNC as well, but, the banking story in particular is tied to the economy, tied to, as far as, you know, companies going public.
So the capital markets, trading revenue and then net interest margin, they all look good.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. And, the other topic that you have here is Shopify, another one that’s been pretty beaten down so far in 2026, down more than 25%. Why do you like that one?
MARK GIBBENS
So it has been hammered pretty hard here. It, it’s probably a little bit, part of that software selloff. You know, people just thinking that AI is going to eat absolutely everything. But, you know, there are certain capabilities that Shopify has. So not only do they operate those, store fronts for companies, but they also, provide services around, you know, financing.
They also provide services, around logistics. So, we think it’s well positioned. We think it’s, you know, kind of the number two in the e-commerce space, behind Amazon. We think it has a long way to go. It’s starting to work with, larger enterprises as well. And it’s extending its AI capabilities, capabilities, working with, you know, Google Gemini and OpenAI.
ChatGPT.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. I should also note, I see in your top holdings here, GLD obviously linked to gold. And then I bet links to Bitcoin having very different performances. So far in 2026. I should note gold is trading around $5,200 an ounce right now. Bitcoin continues to tumble trading just above 65,000 right now. Why gold? Why Bitcoin?
MARK GIBBENS
Like them. Like them both for the long term. We have trimmed a little bit of GLD, in recent weeks just with the kind of run up in the price. But we still think the long term, you know, looks good there. So again, both of these are a little bit of their diversification plays, but they’re, you know, they’re also debasement trades.
So and they both play they kind of play it from just different sides of the fence. But they’re both they’re both are, debasement related. And so I think, you know, when, you know, when an if, the Clarity Act gets passed here, you know, in the next 12 weeks or so. Yeah, that’s a pretty good, boon for, bitcoin and, you know, gold itself, also looks good.
So again, both of them look really good. Obviously Bitcoin’s taken taking a little bit of opposite direction and performance. But again we think that clears up here in the in the intermediate term.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. So your best advice to investors, given that you sound pretty bullish despite the fact that it’s a pretty downbeat day today. And there still is quite a bit of uncertainty now presented from tariffs. Best advice to investors on how to navigate this volatility.
MARK GIBBENS
Here I would say, stick you know stick with what you know, you know, keep track of the headlines. But don’t you know, don’t be out there trading on every single, little development. You know, it was just last April, when Liberation Day occurred. And, you know, the markets got hit really hard. But when we looked, you know, over the next 6 or 9 months, we realized that, our U.S. corporations are very adaptable and they were able to basically hang on and even build, on their profit margins.
So, yes, while we have, you know, we did get some news this weekend that the administration is raising tariffs up to 50% globally. Again, our operators have done very well, just in the past year and in a similar type of environment.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. And just finally, before we get to our rapid fire round, anything that you are confidently avoiding at this point.
MARK GIBBENS
So I haven’t been one to, jump on the energy and materials trade, which has done very well year to date. It seems to me that when you’re looking out, longer term, it’s hard to see you know, as good a fundamental cases, for those sectors, as there are for others, you know, like financials, like technology, like consumer discretionary.
So, I haven’t been one to, to, to jump on the latest fad with, with, sectors like energy and materials.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. The top two performing sectors so far this year, although we know lots of time left in the year before we let you go, we want to do a quick rapid fire. This or that round. Just to sum up your view so you’re ready to play with us.
MARK GIBBENS
Sure.
CAROLINE WOODS
All right. Here we go. Tariffs noise or headwind.
MARK GIBBENS
More noise than headwind. Short term headwind. But it’s it’s going to be noise I think, you know, within the next month or so. So it’s not like the tariff headlines, but it’s not going to stop the market.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay. Tech leadership or market broadening.
MARK GIBBENS
Market broadening continues. Tech stabilizes and begins to move up.
CAROLINE WOODS
Market cap for equal weight S&P.
MARK GIBBENS
I think it’s I think it’s market’s cap is going to start catching up with equal weight.
CAROLINE WOODS
I hardware or I software.
MARK GIBBENS
Play it safe. Play with hardware. So software it’s a little bit dicey right now. Doesn’t mean you can’t hold any software. We, we hold a little bit of software, but, I would say, hardware is the easier route to take here.
CAROLINE WOODS
Pitting two top picks against each other. JP Morgan dividends or Nvidia growth.
MARK GIBBENS
Nvidia growth.
CAROLINE WOODS
Large cap tech. Or if, we’re keeping these quick large cap tech or financial value.
MARK GIBBENS
Large cap tech.
CAROLINE WOODS
Domestic growth or international value.
MARK GIBBENS
Domestic growth.
CAROLINE WOODS
I bubble or I supercycle.
MARK GIBBENS
My I supercycle
CAROLINE WOODS
Nvidia before earnings buying or wait I.
MARK GIBBENS
Rarely rarely say this but by.
CAROLINE WOODS
Microsoft or alphabet.
MARK GIBBENS
Alphabet.
CAROLINE WOODS
Amazon or alphabet.
MARK GIBBENS
Alphabet.
CAROLINE WOODS
Okay so if you had to drop one Microsoft Alphabet or Amazon, who’s getting cut?
MARK GIBBENS
Gosh. I guess I would say Microsoft in the short term, again, it’s a little bit more tied to software. So, that’s why I.
CAROLINE WOODS
Better hedge GLD or I bet.
MARK GIBBENS
Right now, GLD.
CAROLINE WOODS
If you could only own one AI stock for the next decade, who’s the winner?
MARK GIBBENS
Google alphabet.
CAROLINE WOODS
And and finally, one sentence about how you’re feeling about where the market’s heading this year.
MARK GIBBENS
I’m positive I’ve got an 8000 target on the S&P 500. So I’m bullish. That doesn’t mean that we aren’t going to have any headwinds does mean we’re not can have any near-term headwinds. But structure of the market looks good. Structure the economy looks good.
CAROLINE WOODS
All right S&P 8000. We’ll take it. Thanks so much Mark. Really appreciate you joining us.
MARK GIBBENS
Thanks for having me.
CAROLINE WOODS
All right. That’s smart. Mark Gibbens, CIO of Gibbens Capital Management.
