Financial & Forex Market Recap: March 19, 2026

Thursday was one of the most volatile sessions of the ongoing Iran war, as fears of central bank rate hikes collided with whipsawing oil prices and a broad unwind of safe-haven flows, leaving the U.S. dollar as the session’s clear underperformer while gold suffered one of its sharpest single-day losses in weeks. A barrage of central bank decisions from the BOJ, SNB, BOE, and ECB all delivered holds on rates, but each carried hawkish undertones warning of inflation risks tied to the Middle East conflict, before late de-escalatory signals out of Washington and Jerusalem helped pare losses in oil and equities heading into the close.

Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!

Forex News Headlines & Data:

• New Zealand GDP Growth Rate for December 2025: 0.2% q/q (0.5% q/q forecast; 1.1% q/q previous); 1.3% y/y (1.3% y/y forecast; 1.3% y/y previous)
• Japan Machinery Orders for January 2026: -5.5% m/m (-7.5% m/m forecast; 19.1% m/m previous); 13.7% y/y (8.1% y/y forecast; 16.8% y/y previous)
• Australia Employment Change for February 2026: 48.9k (10.0k forecast; 17.8k previous)
  • Australia Unemployment Rate for February 2026: 4.3% (4.1% forecast; 4.1% previous)
• The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate, keeping it unchanged as expected: 0.75% (0.75% forecast; 0.75% previous). The central bank’s decision comes amidst warnings of inflationary pressure stemming from the conflict in Iran. While the yen saw some movement, the focus remains on the BoJ’s cautious stance in the face of global economic uncertainties.
• Japan Industrial Production Final for January 2026: 4.3% m/m (2.2% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous); 0.7% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.6% y/y previous)
• Swiss Balance of Trade for February 2026: 4.4B (4.0B forecast; 3.6B previous)
• U.K. Employment Change for January 2026: 84.0k (-10.0k forecast; 52.0k previous)
  • U.K. Claimant Count Change for February 2026: 24.7k (18.0k forecast; 28.6k previous)
  • U.K. Unemployment Rate for January 2026: 5.2% (5.2% forecast; 5.2% previous)
• The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%. The SNB reiterated its willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if necessary to stabilize the Swiss franc . This decision was made amidst projections of a modest uplift in inflation and ongoing Middle East tensions .
• Euro area Wage Growth for December 31, 2025: 3.0% y/y (2.8% y/y forecast; 3.0% y/y previous)
  • Euro area Labour Cost Index for December 31, 2025: 3.3% y/y (3.0% forecast; 3.3% y/y previous)
• The Bank of England voted to hold interest rates at 3.75%, a decision that was largely expected following the outbreak of war in Iran . The Monetary Policy Committee warned of a “new shock” from higher energy bills, indicating potential for increased inflation . This hawkish tone suggests that future rate cuts are less likely in 2026
• U.S. Building Permits Final for January 2026: -4.7% m/m (-5.4% m/m forecast; 4.8% m/m previous)
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for March 14, 2026: 205.0k (215.0k forecast; 213.0k previous)
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March 2026: 18.1 (11.0 forecast; 16.3 previous)
• The European Central Bank’s Governing Council decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting. The ECB emphasized its determination to ensure inflation stabilizes at its 2% target, acknowledging that the economic outlook is “significantly more uncertain” due to the Iran war.
• U.S. New Home Sales for January 2026: -17.6% m/m (-0.9% m/m forecast; -1.7% m/m previous)
• On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will refrain from more attacks on Iranian energy facilities, & President Trump told reporters he’s “not putting troops anywhere”

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Broad Market Price Action:

Thursday delivered one of the most turbulent broad market sessions since the Iran war began, defined by a sharp central-bank-driven deleveraging in the first half of the day, followed by a partial recovery as geopolitical tone shifted in the afternoon.

The S&P 500 closed marginally higher at approximately 6,612, up a fractional 0.03% after an extraordinary intraday swing. The index rallied during the early Asian session toward the 6,638 area before reversing sharply lower through the London session and early U.S. hours, touching lows near 6,560 as the prospect of central bank tightening rattled risk sentiment. A sharp recovery materialized around 3:00 pm ET, likely a positive reaction to positive comments from President Trump on the potential of US troops on the ground in Iran.

WTI crude oil fell 4.40% to settle near $94.20 per barrel, reversing a significant portion of prior sessions’ war-driven gains. Oil traded in a choppy range during the Asian session roughly between $95.50 and $98.50, before a sharp decline in the early London session took prices toward $94. A brief recovery back toward the $98 area ahead of the U.S. open gave way to another steep leg lower in the afternoon, with prices briefly touching a session low near $91.85 before recovering into the close. The late selloff likely correlated with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s comments that Iran can no longer enrich uranium or manufacture ballistic missiles and that the war will end sooner than people expect, as well as reports that Trump had asked Israel to halt further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments about potentially removing Iranian oil sanctions may have added additional downside pressure.

Gold was the session’s most dramatic mover, plunging 3.39% to settle near $4,655. The chart shows gold beginning a steep, nearly uninterrupted descent from roughly $4,834 at the London open all the way to an intraday low near $4,505 before stabilizing and partially recovering through the U.S. afternoon. The sharp selloff appeared to correlate with a convergence of factors including fears that central banks may be forced to raise rates in response to war-driven energy inflation, which would reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. Forced liquidation and margin-driven deleveraging across asset classes may also have contributed to the magnitude of the move, as gold declined sharply even as the Iran conflict continued to escalate.

Bitcoin fell and rebounded to trade near $70,291 by session’s end. The chart shows a broad downward trajectory from around $71,252 at the Asian open, with the cryptocurrency touching a session low near $68,764 during mid-U.S. trading before a partial recovery into the close near $70,422. The decline appeared to broadly track risk-off sentiment, with no direct crypto-specific catalysts evident from today’s news flow.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finished down approximately 0.12% near 4.26%. Yields spiked sharply higher around the U.S. open to a session high near 4.323, coinciding roughly with the release of the stronger-than-expected Philly Fed and jobless claims data, before reversing sharply lower through the U.S. afternoon. The late decline in yields likely correlated with the broader de-escalation narrative and safe-haven demand returning to Treasuries as the dollar selloff deepened. UK short-term yields surged earlier in the session following the hawkish unanimous BOE hold, but U.S. Treasuries appeared to decouple from that dynamic by the close.

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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors

Overlay of USD vs. Majors – Chart Faster With TradingView

The U.S. dollar was Thursday’s clear underperformer among the major currencies, closing with broad-based losses on the day against all majors with the exception of the Canadian dollar, which traded relatively in line.

During the Asian session, the dollar traded net lower against the major currencies. The Bank of Japan’s policy hold at 0.75% was widely expected, but the hawkish dissent from board member Takata and subsequent remarks from Governor Ueda suggesting a rate hike remains possible even during a temporary economic downturn likely contributed to some yen strength and broader dollar softness. The overlay chart shows most USD pairs drifting gradually lower from the session’s open, with moves modest but consistently directional.

During the London session, the dollar traded mostly sideways and mixed against the major currencies. A dense slate of events competed for market attention. The SNB held at 0% with franc-supportive commentary from Chairman Schlegel. The UK labor market report delivered a sharply upside surprise on employment, with 84k jobs added versus a forecast of -10k, though wage growth came in below prior readings. The Bank of England’s unanimous 9-0 hold stood out as particularly hawkish, far exceeding the 7-2 hold the market had priced and contrasting dramatically with the 4-vote cut minority from the prior meeting. The MPC’s warning of a “new shock” from energy inflation would typically be sterling-supportive, yet the overlay chart shows the dollar trading in a choppy, broadly directionless range through this period, possibly as traders awaited the larger U.S. session catalysts.

During the U.S. session, the dollar traded net lower against the major currencies, with bearish pressure intensifying into the close. The ECB’s hold at 2.0% and the subsequent press conference, during which officials flagged the possibility of rate hikes at the April or June meeting tied to Iran war-driven inflation, appeared to broadly reprice rate differentials against the dollar.

The overlay chart shows a sharp and sustained decline in USD pairs beginning around the ECB press conference timing and continuing with increasing momentum through the afternoon. The Philly Fed manufacturing index beat at 18.1 versus 11.0 forecast, and initial jobless claims came in below expectations at 205k versus 215k forecast, suggesting the U.S. economy remains resilient, but these readings were insufficient to anchor the dollar against the weight of geopolitical repricing and shifting rate expectations globally. Late-session de-escalatory headlines on the Strait of Hormuz likely shifted flows further away from safe-haven dollar demand.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar

• New Zealand Balance of Trade for February 2026 at 9:45 pm GMT
• New Zealand Credit Card Spending for February 2026 at 2:00 am GMT
• Germany PPI for February 2026 at 7:00 am GMT
• U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks for February 2026 at 7:00 am GMT
• Euro area Current Account for January 2026 at 9:00 am GMT
• Euro area Trade Balance for January 2026 at 10:00 am GMT
• U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for March 2026 at 11:00 am GMT
• Canada New Housing Price Index for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada PPI for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada Retail Sales Prel for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
• Canada New Housing Price Index for February 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT

Friday’s session arrives with elevated volatility potential given the quarterly options expiration event, with roughly $5.7 trillion in notional options tied to individual U.S. stocks, indexes, and ETFs due in the so-called triple-witching event. This mechanical flow risk could amplify intraday price swings in U.S. equities regardless of fundamental catalysts.

Markets will continue to closely track geopolitical headlines from the Middle East, with particular focus on any developments around the Strait of Hormuz, following Israel’s statements Thursday that the conflict will resolve sooner than expected and U.S. signals that troop deployments are not being considered to secure the waterway. Any movement on Iranian sanctions or ceasefire negotiations could trigger sharp responses across oil, gold, and currency markets.

On the economic calendar, traders may look to any central bank follow-up commentary, particularly from ECB officials who have flagged April and June as potential windows for rate action depending on how the Iran situation evolves. The BoE’s hawkish shift Thursday will similarly keep sterling in focus for any follow-through commentary.

Stay frosty out there, forex friends!

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